Professor Andrzej Torój of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH) has issued a public clarification following what he described as inaccuracies in a recent Gazeta Wyborcza article regarding his expert opinion on alleged statistical anomalies in Poland’s presidential election vote count.
The article, titled “The Prosecutor’s Office Has Almost Finished Counting Votes”, was criticised by Torój for misrepresenting his findings and qualifications. He stressed that while his report referenced an 18,000-vote scenario, this figure related to an extreme and highly unlikely case, examined only to assess the theoretical limits of statistical irregularities. The realistic estimate in his analysis was 266 votes – a negligible number compared to the final vote margin of over 369,000.
Torój also rejected suggestions that he challenged other researchers’ methods and clarified that his work, which employed a spatial error model (SEM), was properly designed to assess potential irregularities. He noted that confirmed recount results so far align closely with his model’s predictions, reinforcing its validity.
Addressing concerns about the use of regression-based tools in election analysis, Torój acknowledged methodological debates but defended his approach as appropriate in this context. He emphasised that confirmed errors identified by prosecutors were concentrated among the top-ranked districts flagged by his model.
Torój concluded by encouraging public scrutiny of official sources and expert analyses, while urging caution over media simplifications in reporting on technical, high-stakes issues such as election integrity.
Source: Warsaw School of Economics (SGH)
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